The attempt on Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump’s life could lead to more political and social violence in the United States. This warning comes from Ian Bremmer, the President of Eurasia, a leading political risk research and consulting firm in the United States.

The United States is reeling after a 20-year-old man identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, that some media outlets have identified as a registered Republican, opened fire during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump was shot through his right ear, and one rally attendee was killed while two others were critically injured in the incident. The “shooter” was killed, according to the US Secret Service.

After the agents gave the all-clear, a bloodied Trump, surrounded by his bodyguards, pumped his fist in the air, prompting a huge cheer from the crowd.

A witness, Gary O’Donoghue, told the BBC that a man with a rifle could be seen on a rooftop minutes before shots were fired at the rally. O’Donoghue said the man was crawling on top of a building just outside the event. He was clearly seen with a rifle, and this was pointed out to the police and Secret Service, but they did not act.

The United States should be prepared for more violence, Bremmer said. Trump, Bremmer added, appears to be fine, “but that cannot be said for the state of American democracy.”

“This is a very grave turn of events in a country that is very deeply polarised, where many Americans do not believe that their democracy is healthy or particularly functional and where a large majority of Americans believe that the domestic political opposition is out to destroy that democracy. This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment, and I deeply worry that it presages much more political violence and social instability to come,” Bremmer warned.

Historically, he said, it is the kind of thing we have seen in many countries facing instability. “It frequently does not end well, and the US is, of course, far worse.”

Institutions in the US are resilient, according to Bremmer, but they have been under stress and eroding under attacks for decades now.

Commenting on the image of Trump standing with blood on his face, triumphantly injured with his fist raised up, and the Secret Service all around him, Bremmer said it is an iconic image. An image, which Bremmer suspects, will become “very, very important for the remainder of this campaign and makes it more likely that Trump wins.

In contrast with President Joe Biden, whose vulnerability due to age and frailty has been robustly debated in the United States following the debate with Trump, “this is the opposite of frail.”

“I don’t know if it was adrenaline or instinct or what it was that got into Trump after someone tried to shoot him. But that response and being caught on tape is, I think, going to be a rallying point for his supporters for a long time, and I expect it to lead all the headlines on this issue as people across the world see it over the coming hours and days,” he said.

Bremmer said it is absolutely essential that everyone across the American political spectrum denounces this political violence and assassination attempt and “calls for calm from their supporters going forward and that this has no place in a democracy, however damaged.”

Ideally, he said, “this should be done in a bipartisan manner in Congress, in the House and in the Senate, not with individual posts and comments and tweets but from the entirety of a joint session, condemning it and working for peace and a peaceful transition, whatever the results of the election going forward, no matter what. That’s what the country needs.”

Bremmer, however, suspects that is not going to happen and that neither former President Trump nor President Biden will be willing or able to do that, and that many of their supporters will have no such interest. But, that, he said, is what the country needs, “it’s utterly essential in this environment and across the political spectrum.”

The United States has more gun availability and violence than any other G7 advanced industry by a long margin, Bremmer said.

“Political extremism and disinformation have been weaponised through the media landscape and particularly through social media. There are large numbers of people, of course, that are spreading conspiracy theories. There are also external actors like Russia, Iran, China, North Korea, and others that are very interested in taking advantage of US division and dysfunction and further using their resources as a megaphone to support and stoke more political violence and instability in the United States.”

At a time when Americans believe that the other political side is out to destroy US democracy, the stakes are very high, he said. “Their willingness to use some political violence is far greater than we have seen at any point since 1968,” Bremmer warned.

Republican strategist John Thomas predicted that the assassination attempt on Trump “may propel him” to “total victory” in the November elections. Thomas told Newsweek that it will provide a “moment of unity.”

“The nation,” he said, would be “rallying behind Trump” whether you like Trump or not.

There has been worldwide condemnation of the assassination attempt. President Joe Biden has called on all Americans to denounce such “sick” violence. There is no place in America for this, Biden said. “We must, as one nation, condemn it.”

Former President Trump’s team indicated that his campaign and the Republican party’s convention in Milwaukee will proceed after the Pennsylvania rally shooting.  

Bremmer believes Trump’s quick reaction and his defiant fist pump will likely cement his image as a political martyr – and benefit his campaign in the run-up to the November election. It may also lead to “a slew of conspiracy theories that the Democratic Party was responsible, while Democrats are likely to wonder whether it was staged by the Trump campaign to boost him in the polls.”  

Former President Trump isn’t the first sitting or former U.S. president who survived an assassination attack. President Ronald Reagan was shot in March 1981. A Secret Service agent and a White House Press Secretary, James Brady were also struck. Reagan was back within two weeks, while Brady became wheel-chair bound.

Could Trump the failed assassination attempt help Trump’s re-election?
“Much will depend on what we learn from the motivation of the shooter,” Bremmer said.