Greater cooperation between the West and China is needed to effectively counter the Russian threat.

That is what Maximilian Hess, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in London is calling for. He argues that the concerns about future generations’ ability to live in a peaceful world due to Putin’s actions are far more pressing than the potential impact of China’s economic strategy on the cars they may drive.

Hess proposes a strategy where the West collaborates with China to mitigate the Russian threat, drawing a parallel to the strategic alignment with Stalin during WWII to combat the Nazis despite his terrible actions. Furthermore, he believes that Xi is not ready for a full-blown economic war with the West.

Show of Solidarity, but Russian Tail Isn’t Wagging the Chinese Dog

Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s during his visit to China. Outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, they were hailed by marching People’s Liberation Army soldiers, a 21-gun salute on Tiananmen Square, and children waving the flags of China and Russia.

In a joint statement on Thursday, the two leaders proclaimed a new era of opposition to the US on a host of security issues and a shared view from Taiwan and Ukraine to North Korea, as well as cooperation on new peaceful nuclear technologies and finance.

It was Putin’s first foreign visit since being sworn in for another six-year term, and the Russian President wanted to make it clear to the world about his priorities and the strength of his ties with Xi.

Did Putin get everything he was aiming for, and where does this leave the West?

Hess, who is the author of the book ‘Economic War: Ukraine and the Global Conflict between Russia and the West’, says while Putin wanted deals for more gas to be sold because Russia has a glut of gas now with the European market lost, “we saw absolutely no progress whatsoever.”

Putin is dependent on China for 50% of Russian gas exports and is currently Russia’s only significant growing trade partner. Hess points out that Russia “uniquely runs a trade surplus with China and exports roughly $3 worth of goods for every $1 that it imports from China.” This is a very unique position as China runs trade surpluses everywhere else. It speaks to the structural weakness of the Russian economy and the weakness in Russia as a new market for China, he said.

China, Hess says, has been increasing exports to Russia, which includes vehicle sales, but “this is certainly not going to be a growth market for China that can compete with restricting access to the West.”

Putin also wanted continued Chinese support on technology and material goods for the war in Ukraine, which includes small drones, computer chips, and other technologies, particularly dual-use technologies. Hess says the signal from Xi was very much that trade of dual-use technology and restricted items will, despite US sanctions, continue at pace.

China, however, has a much longer-term strategy on the BRICS financial agenda. “It doesn’t let the Russian tail wag the dog of this policy and that doesn’t seem to be changing.”

On Putin’s plan for a gas pipeline, Hess says the head of Gazprom, Alexey Miller, was not seen on the Russian President’s trip to China. It could have been discussed behind closed doors, but the fact is that China has all the negotiating power and can essentially set the price it wants. Hess says he does expect that the Power of Siberia 2 , Russia’s planned gas pipleline to China, will be built on extremely advantageous terms to China, but he does not expect that to be soon.

Xi is Not Ready for a Full-Blown Economic War with the West

While Xi tends to stay away from Russia, Putin, Hess says, is willing to make trips to Beijing, which makes it very clear “who’s the bigger brother in the relationship,” and that is obviously China. Many people in the Russian foreign policy and national establishment are not happy with this, but “they don’t really have any alternative right now.”

While Putin’s main aim of the visit to Xi was to convince Xi, “Look at what the West is doing to you in tariffs and they are trying to cut off your market – it is time to accelerate economic warfare and join in with us in this full-blown economic war with the West,” Hess’ impression is that President Xi is “certainly not ready to do so and hasn’t been.”

The West is Not Understanding the Risk of a Two-Front Economic War with Russia and China

Hess says he is worried that Western policymakers are not understanding the risks of potentially fighting a two-front economic war, including China, while they are already very much engaged in one with Russia.

“We need to see the Western Chinese tensions as a trade war that risks escalating into an all-out economic war, whereas we’re certainly far beyond a trade war and into an all-out economic war with Russia already.”

The current political environment is structured around upcoming elections, “because a lot of that short-term China stuff will play out very importantly at the ballot box.”

Hess says a lot of people don’t understand how much of the economic pain they have felt over the last two years was as a result of Russia’s economic actions, not because of Chinese trade actions. It is something that Putin is threatening to do again, and “we have to be much more careful about oil markets.”

“I would much rather see a Western approach that recognises that to defeat Russia’s threat, which is very large, very deadly, and very costly in the short term, we should be able to work better with China about mitigating those risks and dealing with the Russian threat than competing with China on trade and economic issues in the long term.”

Wishing for More Discussion on How the West Can Work with China to Mitigate the Risk of Russia

While there are valid reasons to be concerned about the future of the Chinese economy and the West’s positioning, and it is right to say we want to protect Western auto manufacturers and not be dependent on China for exports, Hess says “Putin is invading his neighbour and killing thousands of Europeans monthly.” China, he says, is not as direct a martial threat as Russia.

When Xi was in France, says Hess, Putin was testing nuclear weapons and holding drills for a simulated nuclear attack on Europe.

He says World War II comparisons are inappropriate, but it was the right decision to align with Stalin to combat the Nazis despite his terrible actions.

“I wish there was more discussion about how we can work with China, which also perceives some risks in Russia’s actions, to defeat Putin.”

He says there was a big difference in worrying about future generations’ ability to live in a peaceful world based on Putin’s actions compared to what cars they may drive based on China’s economic strategy.

Zelensky Seeks China’s ‘ Influence Over Russia” for Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Hess’ call comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated to AFP that he would like to work with countries like China with influence on Russia and he urged Beijing to attend peace talks next month in Switzerland.

Zelensky told AFP that Chinese leaders, “live a little bit with the feeling that if Russia loses the war, it is not a loss for Russia, but a victory for the United States.”

“For them, it is a victory for the West. And they want to find a balance between the two… That’s why I would like to see China involved in the Peace Summit” on June 15 and 16.

Putin Has No Real Respect for African Leaders

Commenting on whether African leaders like South African President Cyril Ramaphosa could play a role in peace negotiations on the war in Ukraine, Hess says that the outcome of South Africa’s election and should a coalition include political parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters or Zuma’s MK Party, it may negate the possibility that South Africa is a relatively neutral arbiter.

“Putin was bombing Kyiv while they were there,” which is a perfect example, he says, that the Russian leader does not respect these leaders. They were willing to bomb a city where he might be knocking out Brits, but there is not genuine respect there.