As an opinion poll reveals that support for the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa has fallen below that of the main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), for the first time, a leading political analyst says the party should strike a trade deal with the Trump administration if it wants to survive.

Dr Frans Cronje, the Chairman of the Social Research Foundation says that the ANC is at a critical juncture and its political future hinges on securing a strategic agreement with the Trump administration within this year.

The poll conducted by the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) reveals that the DA has overtaken the ANC in public support with DA backing among black registered voters surging. The ANC’s diminishing support coincides with internal strife within the Government of National Unity (GNU).

ANC’s declining support

The poll by the Institute of Race Relations in South Africa reveals that the DA now commands 30 per cent of the vote, while the ANC trails slightly at 29.7 per cent. Crucially, the DA’s support among black registered voters has more than tripled—from 5 per cent to 8 per cent— “highlighting a move beyond traditional voting patterns and signalling the potential emergence of politics driven by socio-economic concerns rather than identity-based grievances.”

Dr Cronje attributed the ANC’s decline in support—from 40 per cent in the 2024 elections to 30 per cent in the latest poll—to factors such as the VAT increase, threats to the GNU, and a lack of serious reform. He warned that the ANC’s inability to attract investment and raise growth rates to create jobs and improve living standards could further erode its political standing.

GNU teetering on the edge

On the future of South Africa’s GNU, which is currently embroiled in a dispute over the approval of the country’s budget—including a proposed VAT increase from 15per cent to 15.5per cent—Dr Cronje said he was not particularly worried about whether it would continue or break up. He suggested that South Africa may be approaching a new GNU moment, with the potential for another governing administration emerging at the next election in 2029.

He added that polls conducted by the Social Research Foundation show that public opinion in South Africa remains “absolutely moderate and centrist and sensible.”

Mcebisi Jones “will raise eyebrows” in Washington

On South Africa’s diplomatic relations with the US, which have seriously deteriorated since Donald Trump assumed power, Dr Cronje described the situation as “a vast opportunity for everyone—for the DA, for the ANC, for all South Africans.”

South Africa recently nominated businessman and whistleblower on corruption in the Zuma era, Mcebisi Jonas, as a Special Envoy to the United States. This follows the removal of Ebrahim Rasool, who accused President Trump of “mobilising a supremacism” and trying to “project white victimhood as a dog whistle.”

Dr Cronje said Jonas’ appointment “will raise eyebrows in Washington” due to his role as chairman of the MTN Group, a cellular phone company that holds a 49per cent stake in Irancell. The remaining 51per cent is owned by Kowsar Sign Paniz (KSP), an Iranian consortium. MTN is also fighting a legal battle with Turkish telecom giant Turkcell, which alleges that MTN used bribes to secure the lucrative telecom licence in Iran

Urgency for deal with Trump

Dr Cronje said the ANC is unlikely to achieve the fixed investment rate required to drive economic growth and job creation. What remains to be seen is whether its current declining support will inspire the will to survive. If the party wants to persist in South Africa, he said, it must urgently conclude a deal with the Trump administration.

He noted that several countries, including Zimbabwe and Lesotho, have responded positively to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

A senior delegation from US Secretary of State Scott Bessent has reportedly flown to Harare for discussions with President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government, according to sources close to NSN.

“So, getting the diplomacy right with the United States presents the prospect of South Africa securing a very attractive trade and investment arrangement. South Africans will have to do a lot of work to get there, but such an arrangement could, in and of itself, be sufficient to change South Africa’s economic fortunes.”