South Africa must exercise caution in aligning its defence policy with NATO’s adversaries, a leading defence analyst has warned.

Kobus Marais, a former Shadow Minister of Defence, spoke out following a series of events which could potentially damage South Africa’s relationships with the West.

The incidents included a visit by the commander of the South African Navy, Vice Admiral Monde Lobese, to Iran, the refusal to allow the export of South African ammunition to Poland, and the docking of a Chinese naval vessel in Cape Town.

In an interview with National Security News, Marais emphasised that President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government should carefully consider the implications of its foreign and defence policies—especially as its key relationship with the United States hangs in the balance and South Africa’s continued participation of AGOA, the preferential trade agreement for Southern African states with the U.S. is being reviewed.  

According to Marais, the arms and defence industries in South Africa are fundamentally based on NATO standards rather than standards from the Eastern Bloc, China, or Russia. He stated, “If you want to jeopardise all those sales, markets, and investments, then supporting NATO’s adversaries will only alienate our customers further.”

South African Navy Chief visits Iran

Details surrounding Vice-Admiral Lobese’s visit to Iran were reported by the Iranian Khabar news agency earlier this month. During his five-day stay, Vice-Admiral Lobese engaged in discussions with senior Iranian navy officials, including Admiral Shahram Irani and Sardar Alizereza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp. The delegation discussed plans to send South African naval students to the Imam Khomeini University of Marine Science and ways to expand relations further.

Marais questioned the wisdom of deepening ties with Iran, calling it “one of the major adversaries and threats to the security of America, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.”

He described the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel as a proxy war of Iran, “which supplies Hamas with financial and military support and targets America and the West” with Israel, who he said represents the interest of these nations.

“So, why would we engage with Iran during such a volatile period?”

Marais says the ANC’s foreign relations policy has historically favoured Palestine, Russia, and China, often ignoring current geopolitical and trade realities. 

“We must recognise that Iran and Russia are close allies,” he said “their involvement, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, places them at the forefront of global tensions.”

South Africa blocks ammunition export to Poland

Marais also expressed concern over South Africa’s recent decision to block a shipment of ammunition from RDM, Rheinmetall’s South African facility, to Poland. Poland’s order for thousands of 155 mm artillery rounds has been on hold for over a year, leading to uncertainty regarding the fulfilment of the €44 million contract.

While the NCACC (National Conventional Arms Control Committee) in South Africa has not provided specific reasons for suspending the contract, speculation suggests South Africa’s alignment with Russia influenced the decision. 

Marais believes there is no justification and lawful reasons for failing to grant the export permit. He labelled the decision as short-sighted, arguing that it represents a lost opportunity for Denel and South Africa’s defence industry. 

“The rationale behind not proceeding with this permit remains unclear. Is it an attempt to curry favour with Russia or weaken Poland? Such reasoning is myopic, as Poland can source these munitions elsewhere. Rheinmetall is establishing a similar facility in Spain, and the European Union permits sales to both Poland to arm and defend themselves and Ukraine. Therefore, our loss is indeed their gain,” Marais stated.

Chinese hospital ship visits Cape Town

South Africa’s new Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, Angie Motshekga, welcomed the Chinese hospital ship, The Peace Ark, in Cape Town, claiming it would strengthen bilateral relations. She described the services provided by the Chinese ship as “very handy” as many locals have received medical care and surgeries.

Marais views the ship’s presence as more about showcasing Chinese influence globally than actual humanitarian assistance. He expressed skepticism about the ship and past joint military exercises, such as Operation Mosi, a joint naval exercise that took place in February 2023  between the South African Navy, Russia, and China. 

Marais said it begs the question of what South Africa gains from these missions.  “In my view, absolutely nothing,” he says. “Those engagements often serve more as propaganda opportunities for Russia or China.”

The risks of continuing with a ‘Naledi Pandor’ foreign policy

Marais stressed that South Africa faces urgent challenges regarding the renewal of the AGOA agreement. He cautioned, “If we were excluded, it would be devastating for our agricultural industry, car manufacturing, and other sectors. Maintaining those relationships is crucial. We cannot afford to disregard them.”

He expressed hope that the new Government of National Unity would “move away from the hardline Pandor directions of foreign policy.” With a new Foreign Minister, Ronald Lamola, there is potential for a more pragmatic approach to foreign relations, according to Marais.

There will be a fine balance for President Ramaphosa to achieve, as several misguided elements must be addressed. Marais remains hopeful that the Government of National Unity will shift away from policies that could harm South Africa’s foreign relations and trade agreements, particularly AGOA and with the UK and EU.