Negative US policies, including sanctions against South Africa, could lead to economic repercussions for the country, starting with a sharp drop in the value of the South African currency and ultimately having a detrimental effect on the middle class, according to a leading political analyst.

Dr Piet Croukamp from the University of Johannesburg warns that if the US imposes tariffs on South African vehicle exports, agricultural products, or other measures, “the rand will tank, inflation will rise, [and] we will have to respond with higher interest rates. There’s nothing that impoverishes a middle class like high interest rates. Remember, we had a 25% interest rate a decade ago,” he added.

Dr Croukamp’s warning comes as calls for punitive action against South Africa grow. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has come under scrutiny by the Trump administration following its genocide case at the International Criminal Court.

In an interview with National Security News, Croukamp advised the Ramaphosa government to “lie low and stay off Trump’s radar” in the current hostile climate between the two countries.

Croukamp’s warning follows a deteriorating relationship between South Africa and the new Trump administration, with the administration issuing an executive order to cut funding to South Africa. The order cited the country’s land expropriation policy and its genocide case at the International Court of Justice against Washington’s ally, Israel.

According to Croukamp, it was the ICJ case against Israel that brought South Africa into the Washington spotlight.

“He’s got a very, very close relationship, not only with Israel, but he also has an affinity to resolve the issue of Gaza, which he thinks that political power—raw political power—can save or solve. And what you have to do is you just move two million people out, fix up the place, and move them back, and everybody will live happily ever after.”

He added that issues of diversity, inclusion, and equity—topics that particularly frustrate Trump—along with the narrative of the persecution of white Afrikaners, place South Africa in a precarious position.

The ANC was looking for trouble, he said, by receiving the Iranian ambassador at the political party’s headquarters, Luthuli House. Earlier, they sent former Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, to Washington to smooth over relations, a move that Croukamp described as “madness.”

“That’s the one person who’s being mentioned all the time for her pro-Palestinian stance. That’s the one person who has met people from Iran, a delegation from Iran in Iran. That’s the one person who received a phone call, took a phone call, from one of the Palestinian—one of the Hamas—leadership. That’s the one person who’s being associated with everything that Donald Trump hates about South Africa’s policy towards Iran,” he said.

South Africa also risks losing the United States consulate in Johannesburg after the ANC considered changing the name of Sandton Drive—where the US consulate is situated—to Leila Khaled Drive. Khaled was a member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which the US considers a terrorist organisation. The motion was, however, rejected on 13 March.

Another provocative move was an opinion piece by President Cyril Ramaphosa in the Washington publication Foreign Policy on 25 February 2025, aimed at Israel, in which he accused powerful nations of “providing diplomatic cover, military hardware, and political support [to Israel] that has systematically violated international law in Gaza.”

To add to the list of provocations, Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe suggested that South Africa could turn to Russia or Iran to expand its civilian nuclear capacity—a stance that could deepen the rift with the United States.

Stay out of Trump’s spotlight: US domestic issues could divert attention

Ultimately, Croukamp believes that the best strategy for South Africa is to minimise its visibility to the Trump administration and focus on domestic stability.

“We should get Gwede Mantashe not to say that we will keep our minerals and you can go away, or Naledi Pandor to go to America and make a pro-Israeli stance, or the ANC to invite Iran into Luthuli House. If we can get them to stop those things, maybe we will disappear from the radar screen for a while,” said Croukamp.

He added that domestic problems in the US could divert attention away from South Africa. Trump’s tariff war with the Canadians, Mexicans, and Europeans “will come at a massive price” and could draw Trump’s focus away from South Africa.

“It looks like it’s possible that there might be a small recession setting in. It’s possible that inflation will go up. It’s possible that interest rates will rise, and once those variables have an impact on the domestic economy in America, maybe his focus will move there and away from us. We must just get him not to look in our direction because there’s nothing we can say or do to change his mind. We must get him to be involved somewhere else and forget about us for a while,” he concluded.

Ramaphosa government sending mission to Washington to try to save trade

With the threat of South Africa being kicked out of AGOA, President Ramaphosa is planning to send a trade delegation to Washington to prevent the country’s exclusion. It will be led by his Trade Minister, Parks Tau. A number of business leaders are also expected to be in the delegation. Ramaphosa is reportedly including the leader of the official opposition, John Steenhuisen of the Democratic Alliance, in the delegation. No date for the trip has been announced.