The second Trump administration has implemented a series of punitive measures against the South African government. The first of these actions was to freeze most aid through an executive order due to the country’s new land expropriation law and its case against Israel in international court, accusing the country of genocide. This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, Ebrahim Rasool, persona non grata.

Joshua Meservey from the Hudson Institute, an American conservative think tank in Washington, argues that these measures against South Africa are insufficient to alter what he characterises as the ANC’s hostile treatment of the US. He believes that sanctions should be targeted at senior leaders of the ANC. 

Meservey’s call for stronger action comes as South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has promised to put relations with the US “on even keel.”

In a series of recent actions regarded by the Trump administration as provocative, the ANC hosted the Iranian ambassador at its headquarters, Luthuli House, and also considered renaming Sandton Drive—where the US consulate is located—to Leila Khaled Drive. Khaled was a member of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), which the US designates as a terrorist organisation. However, this motion was rejected on 13 March.

For its new ambassador to Washington, Ramaphosa’s government selected Rasool, a former Premier of the Western Cape, known for his pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel stance, as well as his perceived support for Hamas. During an online webinar hosted by the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra), Rasool criticised the Trump administration’s foreign policy, saying it bypasses institutions like the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund.

“Donald Trump is launching an assault on incumbency – those who are in power – by mobilising a supremacism against the incumbency, at home, and I think I’ve illustrated abroad as well,” he said.

These comments escalated tensions between the US and South Africa, leading to Rubio’s decision to expel Rasool from the US. 

The Presidency in South Africa noted the “regrettable” expulsion of Ambassador Rasool, and Clayson Monyela, spokesperson for the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, indicated that a replacement is imminent, with a shortlist of three candidates.

With tensions escalating between the Ramaphosa government and the Trump administration, Meservey believes that other punitive measures, such as revoking South Africa’s access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), lack the necessary precision to dissuade the ANC’s behaviour. He contends that the ANC is prepared to accept the loss of AGOA and advocates for a targeted campaign of sanctions to cut officials off from the funds that support their patronage networks. He describes South Africa as a “target-rich environment” for sanctions.

A precision strike to target ANC decision makers

Meservey suggests that the US has tools like the Magnitsky Act to target corruption and human rights abuses. “There are also potential avenues given the terrorist financing flows through South Africa to groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and ISIS. Links between ANC officials and sanctioned Russian oligarchs could enable secondary sanctions,” he stated.

He cited the example of US sanctions against corrupt and brutal ZANU-PF officials in Zimbabwe as a precedent.

South Africa’s investor climate could be affected

Although Meservey advocates for targeted sanctions against South Africa, he acknowledges that any sanctions would have “a dampening effect on businesses.”

“That is unfortunate, and it’s not at all something that I want to happen in the South African case. But fundamentally, the blame lies with the ANC for engaging in a series of provocations and hostile actions towards the United States.”

Meservey said if you treat the US “like an enemy, eventually it will respond… I think that is the situation the ANC faces now. If this continues to deteriorate, there will be really unfortunate ripple effects that the ANC should answer for,” he concluded.

South Africa is already in the arms of Russia and China

When asked whether the US risks driving South Africa into the arms of China and Russia through hostile actions, Meservey replied, “I think they’re already in the arms of China and Russia.” He noted that the Russian embrace is particularly puzzling, as economically, “Russia barely registers in the South African economy—it’s a tiny, insignificant part—whereas the United States is a very significant and large economic partner to South Africa.”

Ramaphosa promises to mend relations with the US

Speaking at an event in South Africa following the expulsion of his US Ambassador, President Cyril Ramaphosa insisted that South Africa has not been “blue ticked” by the Trump Administration.  “Our relations with the United States,” he said, “are going to be put on even keel, so I would like the people of South Africa not to have sleepless nights.”

Ramaphosa said improving the relationship with the United States was a priority for his government. 

Andries Nel, an ANC veteran of Afrikaans heritage who is currently the deputy minister of Justice and Constitutional Development is widely tipped as Rasool’s successor.