The majority of supporters of the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) strongly favour a coalition between the two parties. This finding comes from a survey conducted in April by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), which was released this week. Dr Frans Cronjé from the SRF has cautioned the ANC about a potential ‘hostile market reaction’ if they pursue a coalition with radical populist elements within the party.

The ANC’s National Executive Council is meeting today in Johannesburg to explore potential coalition partners. The move follows the ANC’s failure to secure a legislative majority in the election held on 29 May after having ruled South Africa for 30 years. 

The ANC revealed The African National Congress (ANC) has engaged in exploratory talks with five parties: the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the Democratic Alliance (DA), the National Freedom Party (NFP), and the Patriotic Alliance (PA).

During a Johannesburg meeting of the ANC’s senior decision-making body, the National Executive Council, Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula stated that the party was considering all options. President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to announce the party’s decision in an address following the meeting.

Mbalula revealed that the ANC attempted to engage with former President Jacob Zuma and his uMkhonto we Sizwe party regarding a coalition government deal. However, Zuma did not respond. He said the ANC has narrowed its options down to either a government of national unity or a coalition government.

In a statement released by the MK Party on the evening of 6 June, it stated that “engagements” with the ANC have taken place regarding the coalition discussions and a meeting is expected to take place soon. The MKP indicated that it will hear the views presented with “an open mind.”

A survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation in December 2023 found strong support among ANC and DA voters for a coalition between the two parties. Approximately 21.4% of respondents viewed the option as ‘somewhat favourable,’ resulting in a total of 76.2% in favour of a DA-ANC tie-up. Specifically, 59% of ANC supporters in the survey strongly favoured a coalition with the DA, while 57% of DA voters expressed strong support for such a coalition.

The SRF concluded that there is considerable backing among ANC and DA voters for the parties to form a coalition as part of a government of national unity. In another survey conducted in April 2024, respondents were asked about their feelings if ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa called for a Government of National Unity. The majority regarded the option of a grand coalition as ‘very favourable.’

DA-ANC link-up would mark economic recovery for South Africa and stabilise politics 

Commenting on the possible coalition for South Africa, Dr Frans Cronje from the SRF told NSN today that “the senior leadership ranks of the DA and the ANC have made promising progress in terms of striking the kind of coalition deal that would mark an economic recovery for South. Africa and stabilise its politics for several election cycles to come.” 

Dr Cronjé said there is however doubt as to whether the ANC will be able to have that deal endorsed by a key, but a “largely compromised internal committee that prefers – for short-term expedience – a deal with radical populist parties.” Should the view of the committee hold, he said, “Expect a very hostile market reaction!”