With South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) completing its first 100 days, clear signs indicate that ANC hardliners are becoming emboldened, warns Ray Hartley from the Brenthurst Foundation. Hartley cautions that these critics are utilising the goodwill generated by the GNU to deepen the ANC’s ties with autocratic regimes and are doubling down on their friendship with Russia and Iran. He expects South Africa’s flirting with Putin to escalate at the BRICS summit taking place in Kazan in Russia from 22-24 October. 

This faction in the ANC, he says, prefers a return to the party’s older, more radical populist approach that aligns the ANC with autocrats like Russia and Iran.

“Post the GNU, there have been developments which show that President Cyril Ramaphosa is actually not as in control of the ANC as people think. He was able to drive through the GNU, but that was largely due to EFF made it a condition that he not will not be the president if they were to join the GNU. So, he really had no choice but to look elsewhere for partners,” Hartley explained in an interview with National Security News.

The GNU arrangement, he says, only applies at the national level where Ramaphosa can enforce it. It does not extend to the provincial and local government levels, as evidenced by the ANC’s removal of the DA mayor, Cilliers Brink, in Tshwane, in collaboration with ActionSA. Furthermore, Hartley highlights clear signs of rebellion within the party, pointing out how Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi ignored a warning letter from ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula regarding his cooperation with the DA, Fikile Mbalula, regarding his approach to cooperation with the DA. 

“So, it’s clear there’s a sort of emboldening of those who are critical of the GNU and who would prefer to see the ANC revert to its older, more radical populist approach.”

While the GNU at the national level has reinstated some confidence in South Africa’s overall direction, Hartley believes this is fragile and could easily be undone by reckless international politicking. He observes signs that the realignment strategy, rather than genuinely positioning South Africa as a non-aligned power critical to its economy, is re-emerging. 

“We had a Russian warship docking in Simon’s Town naval base, one of their major warships. That again is quite a strong signal of alignment given that Russia is at war with Ukraine and does undermine South Africa’s claim to be neutral in that conflict.”

South Africa’s ‘Russian flirting’ expected to intensify at Kazan BRICS summit

Expectations are that South Africa’s ‘Russian flirting’ will escalate during the BRICS summit hosted by President Vladimir Putin in Kazan, Russia, from 22-24 October—a venue chosen, according to Hartley, because of its substantial distance from the Ukrainian frontline.

The BRICS summit, he added, “is going to be a major opportunity for Putin to kind of regain some kind of global credibility by using the BRICS forum to project himself as a sort of acceptable figure in global politics.” 

Hartley anticipates South Africa playing a significant role at the summit, as it was Presidents Ramaphosa and Putin who championed the group’s expansion to include Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Ethiopia during last year’s South African BRICS summit.

How South Africa navigates its relationship with Russia at the BRICS summit in Kazan will signal whether there is a “return to the wholehearted endorsement of Russia.” 

Ramaphosa ‘blown around by the breeze’ by BRICS countries, needs to engage with Ukraine 

South Africa has the potential to become a credible interlocutor in the Russia-Ukraine war, but to achieve this, it must cease its overt flirtations with Russia, according to Hartley.

Ramaphosa’s government must demonstrate firmness by stating to Russia, ‘This is not a good time for your warship to be here, because we see ourselves in a different position. 

Hartley emphasises that Russia is “a very sophisticated operator and will use opportunities like the summit in Kazan to drive home their reach and to demonstrate that they have support.”  

He does not see a serious effort being made to position South Africa as a potential interlocutor in the Russia-Ukraine war. The country, he argues, must enhance its communication and engagement with Ukraine.