South Africa has been accused of damaging relations with the US and being a “useful idiot for Russian propaganda” after it failed to grant the necessary diplomatic immunity to the United States for Africa’s biggest airshow taking place in Pretoria this week, while extending an invitation to Russia. However, it appears that the expected Russian aircraft did not to turn up.

Emma Powell, the Democratic Alliance Shadow Minister for International Relations and Cooperation, told National Security News in an interview that the U.S. withdrew from the 2024 Africa Aerospace and Defence Exhibition (AAD) at Waterkloof Air Force Base because the country’s Defence Ministry had failed to confirm the application of the 1999 Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) during their visit. She noted that this agreement has been in place for more than 25 years. Powell questioned whether this situation stemmed from incompetence or sabotage.

Powell said South Africa must answer for the decision of the United States to withdraw from the defence exhibition in Pretoria.

“The United States, in having to plan for the deployment of the equipment that they intended on sending to exhibit,” she said, “needed to get a written guarantee from our defence force ahead of budgetary allocations and readying the jets for take-off that the SOFA agreement would apply.”  

By the 6^th of September, she said, the US had no choice to withdraw from the exhibition because of the failure of Defence Intelligence and the South African Ministry to provide this written guarantee. 

“What we find deeply concerning is that despite Russia being involved in an active war of aggression against a sovereign state, with almost 20,000 children still missing from Ukraine after being taken by the Russian Federation, and the fact that they are waging a war in violation of international law, they have been invited to exhibit some of their aircraft and military capability in South Africa.”

As a non-aligned state, Powell argued, it is not in the country’s diplomatic interest to engage with nations that are actively involved in wars of aggression against sovereign states or whose leaders are indicted for violations of international law at the International Criminal Court. 

“The Department of Defence either deliberately sabotaged the United States’ participation in the AAD or is staggeringly incompetent,” she said, adding that South Africa’s Minister of Defence, Angie Motshekga, needed to take full responsibility for it.

Russians conducted reconnaissance but didn’t show up

Defence analyst Kobus Marais told NSN that South Africa appears to be acting as a “useful idiot” for Russian propaganda, noting the absence of Russian military aircraft at the airshow.

Sources close to South Africa’s Defence Ministry and defence force chiefs indicated that Russia went through preparations to attend the exhibition at Waterkloof and “they were still expecting them to show up.” But it seems that the Russians never intended to turn up.

According to the defence website Military Africa, Russia planned to attend with a range of armoured vehicles and modern military aircraft, including the expected presence of delegates from the Russian Air Force, who visited South Africa in August to prepare for the event. There were even discussions about bringing Tupolev Tu-160 bombers for the AAD exhibition.

There is a Rosoboronexport stand next to Rheinmetall, the South African subsidiary of the German arms manufacturer, but according to NSN sources, it is the same stand they had in 2022, “with a big screen playing promos and nothing interesting to see or to talk to.” Rosobornexport is a state intermediary for Russia’s defence exports.

The AAD exhibition is viewed as a national asset and contributes significantly to South Africa’s GDP.

Thirty nations and 85 ministers from across the world are gathering at the Waterkloof Air Force Base for the defence exhibition. China will also be exhibiting, although Powell noted that she did not see Iran on the list of exhibitors.

GNU present opportunity to refresh SA’s foreign policy

The African National Congress (ANC) is not in the position it was last year, according to Powell, when South Africa participated in controversial military drills with Russia and China and when the Lady R, a Russian ship, docked in Simonstown.

The ANC formed a Government of National Unity (GNU) which represents, she said, “an incredible opportunity for a refresh of South Africa’s foreign policy and an opportunity for us as a nation to demonstrate a greater consistency.” An incident like the delay in issuing diplomatic guarantees, she said, “does damage to South Africa.”

South Africa has been on a charm offensive in Washington, which included a working visit from International Affairs Minister Ronald Lamola in the past week, in an effort to “bridge the gap” between Ramaphosa’s government and senior political leaders in Washington, Powell stated. According to Powell, the country has reached a point of “renewed confidence and hope.”

However, when a basic diplomatic written guarantee cannot be given to the US by the Defence Ministry, she questions, “How much more generosity must be extended on the part of the United States? Now, when I say generosity, I use that word quite deliberately, given that AGOA is essentially a piece of legislation that entitles South Africa to a degree of benefit that a standalone bilateral trade agreement would not.”

Marais said the controversy surrounding the ADD exhibition “shows how important is that our highest priority international trade interests must be supported by appropriate international relations, and the correct and appropriate military and defence strategies.”

“This is what happens,” he said when political leaders think and act in silos,” he said.”

The snub to the US comes as a leading Washington think tank the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies(FDD)  wrote in a policy brief that the ANC continues to dominate South Africa defence and security policy. The FDD stated, “Pretoria had a once-in-a generation opportunity to turn the page on its growing ties with China, Russia and Iran, along with political support to Hamas… and the participation of opposition parties in the GNU could have provided a counterbalance to the anti-Western path of the ANC.” 

“If South Africa continues this path, that review would not only be warranted but also long overdue. Pretoria’s support for US adversaries and terrorist groups has evaded scrutiny for far too long,” the FDD warned.