A leading Africa security expert believes that a full blown military conflict between South Africa and Rwanda is unlikely despite rising tensions between the two countries.

Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, head of African Futures and Innovation at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, has dismissed fears of a wider war in the Democratic Republic of Cong (DRC) as mere rhetoric, adding that war is not on the horizon.

Following the deaths of 12 soldiers in Goma, in eastern DRC, where M23 rebels have seized control, South Africa’s Defence Minister Angie Motshekga announced that President Ramaphosa had warned Rwanda that any attack on South African troops would be a declaration of war. 

Rwandan President Paul Kagame, known for his fiery responses, accused South Africa of deceit and misrepresentation in their communications. During two discussions about the unrest in eastern DRC with President Ramaphosa, he said no such warning was issued, accusing South Africa of misleading the global audience and subtly threatening military engagement.

Kagame also criticised the Southern African Development Community’s peacekeeping force, SAMIDRC, labelling it a mere pretence of peacekeeping.

In an interview with National Security News, Dr. Cilliers noted that the fighting in eastern DRC—described as incidents of friendly fire leading to the 12 casualties—has now calmed down, and he does not believe South Africa will sustain further casualties.  

“South Africa was caught in between, fighting between the forces of the Congolese government and the M23, and the South Africans apparently said: “Listen guys, can we negotiate a truce so we can pick up the wounded?”

Dr. Cilliers has recommended that all parties de-escalate and engage in calm dialogue. He highlighted that the size of the South Africa force is “too small for the DRC, which is a massive country, the size of Western Europe.”

Despite the war of words, he said, communication channels remain open between South Africa and Rwanda. “Given the regional dynamics and the nature of the deep historical problems, one can hope for is a bit of calm.” However, he acknowledged that resolving these challenges would take time.

South Africa should withdraw from the DRC

Cilliers also argued that South Africa should reconsider its engagement in the DRC, citing inadequate funding and resources for such missions. “Our peacekeeping aspirations exceed our capabilities,” he remarked.

He emphasised the strain on the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), which is already stretched thin supporting local issues like illegal mining and policing. “A clear mandate, backed by sufficient funding, is essential for the SANDF’s effective operation,” he added.

Why the DRC Conflict Matters Globally

Dr. Cilliers added: “What has given Africa new agency is the competition with China.” Instability in Africa has also provided a ready vehicle for Russia to pursue and continue its proxy war against Ukraine in Africa, as seen in the Sahel.

“Africa is also the future market. It has the youngest population, and instability in Africa is a threat to the rest of the world. Look at the issues of migrants,” he said. “The US and other countries don’t want to continue providing humanitarian assistance. What you want is a growing market that demands American goods and American services.”

He said that African nations need to demonstrate their potential to enter into partnerships with the US on trade and other matters, especially with Donald Trump in the White House. “Trump is only interested in transactional issues,” he noted.