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By Ben Farmer
Ethiopia has condemned neighbours for trying to shut it out of governance of the Red Sea, as the country’s feud with Eritrea over maritime access has put the region on the brink of war.
A summit between Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan earlier this month decreed that only nations with a Red Sea coast should have any say in governing the strategic waterway.
The pact has been seen as a deliberate stance to keep landlocked Ethiopia out of the waterway, as tensions rise on the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia lost direct access to the sea in 1993 when Eritrea gained independence, but its leaders have since made no secret of their desire to regain a port.
Addis Ababa responded to the announcement saying it had “legitimate interests” in the Red Sea and pointing out that at its nearest point, Ethiopia’s border was only 30 miles (48km) from the coast.
“These geographic and historical realities cannot be altered by political rhetoric, coercive measures, or acts of destabilisation,” a statement added.
Ethiopia has argued that restoring sea access is an existential issue to the country, but has insisted it would be achieved through diplomacy.
Eritrea however has long accused Ethiopia of having designs on its seaport of Assab and of planning to engineer a security crisis as a pretext to seize the city.
Ethiopia meanwhile accuses Eritrea of sponsoring a rebel alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and launching cross-border incursions.
A rebel offensive launched last month has quickly dwindled and an Ethiopian counter offensive had this week pushed through to border town where witnesses claimed to have seen Eritrean forces deploy.
International Crisis Group said: “Ethiopia and Eritrea stand perilously close to all-out war as heavy fighting inches close to their shared border.”
The conflict resolution NGO said Eritrea appeared to have pulled back across the border, but “the effects of these cross-border movements could be dire”.
“They could trigger a full-scale war between Ethiopia and Eritrea that, in turn, could spiral into a wider conflagration along Eritrea’s Red Sea coast.
“A push at the highest political and diplomatic levels to prevent this budding confrontation is a matter of extreme urgency.”
Remarks by a senior Ethiopian government official that federal troops fighting rebels in Tigray could eventually “end up washing their feet in the Red Sea”, added to the tension.
Lencho Bati, head of diaspora affairs and a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, was quoted as saying: “It seems inevitable for the Ethiopian troops who have been toiling in terrains across Tigray to end up giving their feet a treat with the Red Sea water.”
If open conflict does break out, military analysts believe Ethiopia’s forces are likely to have the edge.
Eritrea has a large conscript army, but its hardware is increasingly antiquated.
Ethiopia has meanwhile been modernising its forces with the help of allies like the United Arab Emirates and has particularly been investing in drone warfare.
Acled, the conflict monitoring body last week said Eritrean troops crossing into Ethiopia’s Tigray region had already come under drone attack.
