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By Isabella Egerton
Russia has launched an extensive information campaign to disguise its economic vulnerabilities, following US President Donald Trump’s description of the country as a “paper tiger” and his suggestion that Ukraine could reclaim occupied territory with Western backing.
A report released by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the Kremlin’s messaging has coalesced around three themes: restating its original war aims as necessary for Russian security, portraying Russian victory as inevitable, and highlighting the supposed benefits of renewed US–Russia economic ties. ISW assessed that Moscow is also dangling trade incentives to coax Washington toward normalising ties while continuing the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected Trump’s description, declaring Russia is “more closely associated with a bear” and insisting “there are no paper bears.” He dismissed Trump’s claim that Ukraine could retake ground, arguing Kyiv’s military position is now significantly worse than in spring 2022 and warning that Ukraine’s refusal to negotiate only weakens it further.
Peskov also claimed Vladimir Putin was open to a settlement process but only on Moscow’s terms, which remain unchanged from the demands issued in late 2021 and February 2022. He brushed aside the prospect of a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, calling such talks a “public relations stunt doomed to fail” without extensive preparation.
To reinforce the narrative, Peskov insisted the war was not “aimless” but intended to eliminate what Russia calls its “root causes” — NATO’s eastward expansion and alleged discrimination against Russian speakers in Ukraine. He further claimed there is a surge of volunteers joining the military, enough to fully staff all units, and that the Russian economy is “fully meeting the military’s needs.”
Other senior officials echoed the line. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, accused Trump of living in an “alternate reality,” while Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev declared that Russia’s economy was outperforming those of the US, EU and UK.
Behind the rhetoric, ISW noted, Russia’s economy remains under strain: soaring defence spending and a ballooning budget deficit have forced higher taxes on ordinary citizens, while Ukrainian drone strikes on oil facilities have disrupted fuel supplies. Sanctions have been partly offset by new trade channels, but structural weaknesses persist.
Trump’s more assertive pro-Ukraine stance, shaped by intelligence highlighting Russia’s battlefield and economic vulnerabilities, has rattled Moscow. The Kremlin’s information drive is an attempt to counter that perception, conceal its weaknesses, and convince the West that further support for Kyiv is futile.
