With counting underway in South Africa’s watershed elections, predictions point to the ANC suffering a 15% collapse in support, plunging the country into uncertainty for the next two weeks. The party still remains the dominant force in South Africa; however, it would need the support of another party or political parties to cross the 50% threshold required to stay in government. Final results for the election are expected to be announced on Sunday. Former President Jacob Zuma, who was a wrecking ball within the ANC and hollowed out the country’s state-owned enterprises including Eskom proved to be the man who also dealt significant…

In light of the upcoming UK election, the threat of AI-driven disinformation, like deepfakes, is a growing concern. The UK’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy emphasised the urgency, stating “It is more important than ever that the UK Government equips the public with the information necessary for spotting a deepfake.” In a recent letter, the committee urged that this is “a matter of priority now that an election has been called,” recognising that a comprehensive approach should include public education efforts.   India’s proactive battle against disinformation, focusing on empowering informed online users, offers crucial lessons for the…

In a landmark case under the Beijing-imposed National Security Law (NSL), Hong Kong has convicted 14 pro-democracy activists and former lawmakers on charges of subversion. This mass trial, the most severe application yet of the NSL, highlights the Chinese government’s intensifying crackdown on dissent and erosion of civil liberties in the territory. The same law is currently being used to prosecute media tycoon Jimmy Lai. The Trial and Convictions The National Security Law, enacted in 2020, has been a controversial tool for curbing freedom of speech and dismantling the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. On 30 May 2024, three judges,…

OP-ED Early results of South Africa’s national election point to the ruling party, the ANC losing its majority after being in power for 30 years. The final result is expected this weekend and it will be followed by two weeks of intense negotiations before a final picture will emerge. – Linda van Tilburg who has been reporting on South African politics for 30 years. The sight of millions of South Africans queuing patiently to cast their votes on 29 May in the country’s provincial and national elections evoked memories of the 1994 election, marking the end of apartheid. This election…

As the world awaits news on who will be Iran’s next president, The Conversation discusses who is likely to become Iran’s next supreme leader after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the man many expected to take on the supreme leader role after Ali Khamenei. In this article, Arshin Adib-Moghaddam, Professor at SOAS university in London, argues that Raisi was unlikely to succeed Khamenei, given his lackluster religious credentials, and posits that even the Iranian political establishment does not know who is likely to succeed an increasingly unpopular Khamemei, to take on the role as one of the most powerful…

A recent panel discussion explored the complex relationship between emerging technologies and national security, with artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weapons, and cyber warfare at the centre of the conversation. Leading experts examined the potential benefits and the lurking threats these advancements pose. Cybersecurity emerged as a primary concern. The sophistication of cyberattacks is likely to skyrocket as malicious actors leverage AI for more targeted and disruptive operations. The potential for AI to be weaponised for social control and warfare also sparked ethical concerns. “AI can be used by governments to suppress dissent,” warned a panellist, raising the spectre of authoritarian…

As the South African elections get under way, ISS Africa examines how vulnerable South Africa is to misinformation and disinformation through unverifiable social media posts, designed to influence voters. ISS discusses how information integrity is essential to protect democratic principals and processes. In this article, which we are republishing with ISS Africa’s permission, ISS reveals how its research has shown coordinated techniques similar to those used in other election settings, including ‘follow trains’ and ‘hashjacking’, to push particular agendas, often without readers being aware of such manipulation. Without access to social media data, ensuring voters have verifiable information rather than…

The ANC’s choice of coalition partner could not only alter South Africa’s path but also have wider regional and geopolitical implications due to the country’s strategic location along key maritime routes and its influence in African politics.

The end of official mourning for Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi has kick-started a competition in which as many as 20 potential successors have been proposed.All candidates have to be cleared by the 12-strong elite body known as the Guardian Council, and the regime is torn between ensuring continuity and allowing an open competition that affords the successful candidate true legitimacy.The election on 28h June, triggered by Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident last Sunday, has the potential to expose political divisions within the regime, something that the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will seek to avoid in the search for…

In the lead-up to South Africa’s national elections on May 29, an average of at least one politically motivated assassination occurred every two weeks between January and April 2024. This alarming trend is detailed in a new report, The Politics of Murder: Criminal Governance and Targeted Killings in South Africa, by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (Gi-TOC). One of the report’s authors, Chwayita Thobela, discussed in an interview with National Security News how political killings are on the rise in South Africa. Thobela identified key drivers as intra-party conflicts over political positions and competition for lucrative municipal tenders.…

As the digital battlefield rapidly evolves, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a critical case study in the effectiveness and strategies of cyber operations during crises. A recent cybersecurity conference in London hosted by the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) painted a picture of a shifting cyberwar landscape. Experts highlighted a move away from the predicted cyber blitz towards a new era of digital espionage. “Early predictions focused on widespread disruption,” said Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator. However, the reality has been scattered attacks and a struggle for Russia to leverage compromised systems for tactical gains. Alperovitch noted the…

US President Joe Biden has named Kenya as a major non-Nato ally, making it the first sub-Saharan African country to receive that designation. Mr Biden announced the move during a three-day state visit by Kenyan President William Ruto. It is the first such visit to Washington by an African leader in more than 15 years and comes as Russia and China have expanded their influence across the continent. Several governments in the Sahel region and western Africa have also fallen to military coups, leading to the removal of co-operation missions with western nations. The extension of major non-Nato ally status…