South Africa

Kobus Marais, a defence analyst and
says President Cyril Ramaphosa won’t acknowledge the danger the SA soldiers are in.

“Our troops have not been disarmed whatsoever. No one has gained entry into our bases and taken control,” according to SANDF spokesperson Sipho Dlamini.

DR Jakkie Cilliers dismissed fears of a wider war in the Democratic Republic of Cong (DRC) as mere rhetoric, adding that war is not on the horizon.

Videos obtained by National Security News and circulating on WhatsApp groups suggest that some South African soldiers have surrendered to the M23 rebels.

South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICC drove the review of South Africa’s inclusion in AGOA by Congress according to Tony Carroll.

There is a strong reservoir of goodwill towards the country in Washington that should be explored though robust engagement with the US Congress says US Ambassador Brigety.

The MK Party continues to allege irregularities in the May elections. Having exhausted legal avenues in South Africa, they are now threatening to escalate their claims to an international court.

Given the available intelligence on this latest attack, I assess the threat level in South Africa as CRITICAL—meaning an attack is highly likely in the near future.

State capture, as a form of institutional corruption, continues through extractive politics of the ANC.

Sibanye-Stillwater sits on 27 million pounds of uranium at Beatrix mine in the Orange Free State and 32 million pounds on the surface in a tailings facility at its Cooke operations. The miner want to play a bigger role both upstream and downstream in the energy transition in the future. 

The pressure to cancel the Agoa trade arrangement is a small matter compared to an initiative in the US Congress to declare South Africa a threat to US security, which will be considered by the Senate early in 2025.

Putin’s influence met resistance due to South Africans’ deep respect for their constitutional democracy, “We might not be so lucky the next time,” says Riva Levinson.