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One of the architects of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has urged South Africa to avoid being a leading megaphone on issues related to Israel and BRICS. Tony Carroll, a non-resident fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Africa Programme, emphasised in an interview with National Security News that these positions clash with the views of the incoming Trump administration and leading Republicans.
Carroll said that while there were strong reasons for the non-aligned view that South Africa embraces, and he did not want to dictate its foreign policy priorities, but being less vocal about Israel “and not being singled out as the ringleader on some of these issues is going to be antithetical to the Trump administration.”
Key Republicans are urging the incoming Trump administration to reconsider South Africa’s participation in US trade agreements with Africa, should the South African government maintain its current position on Russia, China, Iran, and Israel. At risk are South Africa’s duty-free exports to the US, such as automobiles and citrus fruits, under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and PEPFAR, the US-assisted health program to combat HIV/AIDS.
Africa imports over Chinese could boost AGOA favourability
Carroll said a factor that could sway senators and congressmen in favour of retaining AGOA is “we’re replacing Chinese or East Asian production and that there is no negative impact on U.S. domestic production.” African countries, and South Africa in particular, must demonstrate that there are strong diplomatic and economic benefits to AGOA. He also suggested that South Africa should get more boots on the ground in Capitol Hill to interact with the media, think tanks, business associations and Trump administration officials.
Regarding a potential extension of AGOA beyond 2025 for South Africa, approved by the Biden administration, Carroll remarked, “South Africa is in trouble.” He said that the Trump administration will be more critical, citing South Africa’s relationship with Russia, its stance on Ukraine, its leadership in the BRICS agreement, its ties with China, and “most pointedly, the issue of the ICC case in Gaza.” South Africa’s case against Israel at the ICC, he explained, drove the review of South Africa’s inclusion in AGOA by Congress, he said.
South Africa has not been “showing up” in Washington and Congress to shift negativity
Carroll criticised the South African government for not being more active on the ground in Washington. The last ambassador, Ndumiso Ntshingo, was a temporary appointment, and the new appointment, Ebrahim Rasool, will only assume his post later this month. Carroll suggested that the way to combat the negative sentiment about South Africa on Capitol Hill, which has shifted from slightly negative to very negative even among centrists, is by being more present.
He said, “You really got to be out there and we haven’t really had a strong presence in Washington to make the good case that South Africa is important. Every once in a while, we’ll get a delegate from the South African government to come and say don’t take us off AGOA. Occasionally we get a couple of ministers, and their visits have been successful, and then we have periodic show-ups from business leadership. That’s all been very helpful. But a lot of this stuff is really in the battle in the trenches, of really getting in and being there consistently and persistently, knocking on the doors and making the case with the media, think tanks, business associations on the Hill, and within the administration.” These, he said, are the people that influence decisions.
Carroll emphasised that South Africa needs to put more “boots on the ground” and make the case at the “minuscule level” by engaging with companies and associations that have business interests in South Africa to weigh in and support the country. This includes the automotive manufacturers, fruit importers, or wine industry.
South Africa could use G20 Presidency and golf ball diplomacy to sway Trump
Carroll emphasised that President-elect Trump is driven by transactional politics, and it starts at a person-to-person level. He said he was pleased that there was a favourable outcome of the conversation that took place between Donald Trump and South African President Cyril. Ramaphosa.
He said that South Africa’s presidency of the G20 this year is favourable and presents a pivot point globally for larger discussions
“It’ll be an opportunity to engage at a very high level in preparation for that event and since President-elect Trump has indicated his interest in coming, then I think that’s a good opportunity for President Ramaphosa to build a relationship with Mr. Trump at the very highest levels because I think that will signal to those people who don’t like South Africa that wait a minute, you know, we have to rethink this because they seem to be getting along just fine.”
Carroll also touted the idea of “golf ball diplomacy,” similar to the ping-pong diplomacy that was a breakthrough in US relations with China, to win Trump over to South Africa and mentioned, in jest, the potential advantage of South African golfer Ernie Els’ close proximity to Mar-al-Lago which could benefit South Africa.
“I’m old enough to remember that the beginning of the seeds of our relationship with China was really the beginning of ping-pong diplomacy, as we called it, and to a certain extent, we call this golf ball diplomacy. If there’s an opportunity for them to talk about golf, then that’s great, that’s a point they can agree on, and let’s start there,” he added.
