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The British government is expected to announce its major defence spending plan, which will cover equipment purchases for the next decade.
The long-awaited defence investment plan (DIP) is expected to contain an £18 billion increase in spending as Prime Minister Keir Starmer seeks a legacy for his beleaguered premiership.
Defence experts have claimed the DIP is unlikely to contain the radical defence spending to purchase the modern equipment – such as drone swarms and missile interceptors – that Britain’s armed forces desperately need.
“Our capability basket at the moment is pretty threadbare,” defence specialist Francis Tusa claimed. “To start with, there is no air defence in the UK.”
The government has described the DIP as a plan for the “10-year transformation of Britain’s defence” under which spending will rise to 2.5 per cent and then 3 per cent of GDP.
But the DIP has been delayed for almost a year after Downing Street was given the Ministry of Defence’s wishlist for equipment, which required cuts to programmes leading to job losses in Labour areas.
The government has come under pressure from all sides to publish the plan, but delayed, in part due to Treasury concerns over costs. Now it is understood that Mr Starmer, under pressure to show some decisive leadership and secure his legacy, is pushing it through.
“We’re working to finalise the plan, and it will be published as soon as possible,” the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said. “It will put the best equipment and technology into the hands of our forces, while investing in growing the UK economy,” he added.
But the delays have meant no major defence programme announcements since Labour came to power almost two years ago, after it ordered a strategic defence review to set out what was required in the DIP.
“The delay has caused a logjam in any future defence procurement and modernisation,” said Tim Ripley, editor of the Defence Eye publication. “The longer it goes on, the less modern equipment the British armed forces will have and the more useless, old equipment they keep.”
A defence source added that the plan presented to the Prime Minister last year had difficult cuts “because defence modernisation results in winners and losers” and that there were “political implications that the PM didn’t want to take at the time”.
As a result, the DIP was unlikely to contain many cuts, as these would likely come in areas with strong Labour support in the north and Wales, such as the factories building the beleaguered Ajax armoured vehicle, jet fighters and submarines.
But as the wars in Ukraine and Iran have demonstrated, the ability of massed drone swarms to cause damage is hugely significant. Britain still does not appear to be adapting to this, unlike France, Sweden and others.
More importantly, experts argue, much greater investment is needed in the Tempest Global Combat Aircraft Programme (GCAP) to ensure the sixth-generation fighter has the ability to act as a mother ship to drone swarms. “It’s intrinsic to its capability that it has the weapons and the drones that go with it, rather than just buying a shiny new aeroplane,” said Mr Ripley.
Furthermore, the delay in the DIP, Mr Tusa told the National newspaper, had meant up to 20 small and medium businesses either going bust or moving their factories to Eastern Europe.
There are also fears that, given the financial pressures, Britain might pull out of the Aukus project to build submarines for Australia with the assistance of the US. “If the UK pulls out then its reputation will be destroyed in Asia,” said Mr Tusa.
“The DIP needs to contain provision for buying drone swarms, artillery and air defence. If it doesn’t, then its armed forces will fall further behind,” he added.
