Listen to the article
By Ben Farmer
An ambitious offensive by Somali Islamists has taken a string of towns and swathes of territory, overturning years of gains by the country’s internationally backed security forces.
The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab group has won repeated victories over Somali forces since February, and in late July captured the strategic town of Maxaas after heavy fighting.
An escalation in American air strikes has failed to stop the advance, and al-Qaeda is now urging its affiliate to “repeat in Somalia what the Taliban had achieved in Afghanistan,” according to a recent United Nations intelligence report.
Ashley Jackson, of the Centre on Armed Groups, said: “This is al-Shabaab’s most ambitious and successful military campaign in years. We haven’t seen them retake, or take, this much territory in a very long time.
“It’s probably regained more territory in the last three, four, five months than in the past four or five years.”
She said the offensive had recaptured territory taken by a government push in 2022 and 2023, and with the capture of Maxaas, which had been under government control for years, had moved further still.
She said: “The fact that they are even targeting that, it’s a level of boldness that indicates a huge level of confidence.
“The fact that they took it indicates how demoralised the Somali National Army forces are and how fragile the government’s hold in really, really important strategic areas is.”
The government had managed to push al-Shabaab out of large parts of central Somalia from mid-2022, fighting alongside a clan-based militia called the Macawiisley.
Yet the government failed to fulfil promises of development in the liberated areas, and the militia quickly started to prey on the population. Al-Shabaab has been able to retake much of the territory easily.
Meanwhile, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government has been preoccupied by political infighting in the capital, Mogadishu, and the 10,000-strong African peace mission has mounting debts and is unable to pay salaries.
This week the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) has been fighting to retake the town of Bariire, located some 30 miles south-west of Mogadishu in the Bas-Shabelle region, which was captured by the militants in March.
Al-Shabaab, meaning The Youth in Arabic, emerged as the radical wing of Somalia’s now-defunct Union of Islamic Courts, which controlled Mogadishu in 2006, before being forced out by Ethiopian forces.
The group is banned as a terrorist group by both the US and the UK and is believed to have attracted a number of foreign jihadists.
It has become notorious for attacks inside Somalia and also in neighbouring Kenya, where in 2013, its gunmen stormed the Westgate shopping mall in Nairobi, killing at least 67 people.
The UN’s latest al-Qaeda monitoring report, released on July 30, said while the central leadership was weak, affiliates like al-Shabaab were gaining territory.
Al-Shabaab’s offensive had seen its ranks swell to anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 fighters, the UN said.
Mogadishu may not be in immediate danger, Ms Jackson said, but the militants would be ready to strike if infighting caused the government to collapse.
