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By Ben Farmer
West Africa has become the global epicentre of Islamist jihadism, with fighters linked to the Islamic State group and al-Qaeda now strong enough to threaten local states, a new analysis warns.
The expansion has been made possible by increasingly sophisticated weapons and tactics, including the use of drones for attacks, reconnaissance and propaganda, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled).
Some 86 per cent of all Islamic State activity in early 2026 took place in Africa, as the continent became the group’s main focus, according to Acled, which monitors war and political violence.
Taken together, Africa’s jihadist groups “represent an ever-growing, expanding threat,” the new report said.
“A unique combination of considerable military strength, extensive territorial control, and embeddedness within global trade and ideological networks has turned once-local insurgents into global actors capable of challenging African governments and testing Western interests and intelligence.”
The new analysis comes after al-Qaeda-affiliated fighters in Mali, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), allied with Tuareg separatists to humiliate the country’s Moscow-backed junta in late April.
A joint offensive reportedly killed Mali’s defence minister and forced Russian mercenaries propping up the regime of Gen Assimi Goïta to withdraw from several towns or risk being surrounded and overrun.
Russia’s Africa Corps mercenaries have since consolidated their positions around the capital, Bamako, as they attempt to shore up the junta.
JNIM, which seeks to impose strict Islamic rule in the country, has responded by blockading routes into Bamako.
Héni Nsaibia, Acled’s senior West Africa analyst, said: “JNIM is likely to maintain military pressure on the Malian regime as it attempts to isolate the capital and ultimately bring down the government, thereby posing an existential threat to Bamako.”
He added: “JNIM’s use of armed drones has rapidly proliferated, from fewer than 10 recorded strikes in 2024 to around 80 in 2025, illustrating a sharp increase.”
Alongside JNIM in Mali, West Africa is plagued by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), while in the Horn of Africa, Somalia continues to face al-Shabaab.
Each of these groups is “capable of controlling large swathes of territory, conducting complex attacks against high-profile military targets, disrupting critical resource and communications infrastructure, and even threatening state capitals like Mogadishu and Bamako,” Acled said.
Thousands of civilians are thought to have been killed by the groups in recent years, while heavy-handed government counter-insurgency campaigns have also been accused of atrocities.
Mozambique is facing its own, smaller Islamic State insurgency in Cabo Delgado province which, while not threatening the state as a whole, is jeopardising major international gas extraction projects.
Military juntas in the Sahel have failed to protect their populations from militants, and turning to Moscow for assistance has had limited success.
Violence in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger is expected to intensify as JNIM and the Islamic State group compete against each other.
Nigerian troops are meanwhile facing sustained attacks from Islamic State fighters in the north-eastern state of Borno.
“The cross-continental threat of global jihadism threatens Africa like no other region on earth,” Acled concluded.
