By Staff Writer
When world leaders meet in Belém, Brazil, this November for COP30, the United States will be absent. President Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and confirmed he will not attend the UN’s annual climate conference.
The absence of the world’s second-largest emitter comes as climate change is increasingly identified by defence and intelligence agencies as a global security issue. Rising sea levels, food shortages, and extreme weather events are already linked to instability, displacement, and competition for resources. The Pentagon, NATO, and the United Nations have described climate change as a “threat multiplier,” warning that it can heighten risks of conflict, terrorism, and state failure.
EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra called the US’s likely absence from the upcoming COP30 a “watershed moment.”
“We’re talking about the largest, the most dominant, most important geopolitical player from the whole world. It is the second-largest emitter,” Hoekstra said in a Bloomberg interview on Sunday.
“So if a player of that magnitude basically says, ‘Well, I’m going to leave and have it all sorted out by the rest of you,’ clearly that does damage.”
COP30, taking place from 10 to 21 November, is designed to shift focus from negotiation to implementation. Brazil’s government intends to turn the summit into a practical forum for advancing commitments already made under the Paris Agreement. One of its main objectives is to advance the “Baku to Belém Roadmap,” which sets out how to increase climate finance for developing nations to $1.3 trillion a year by 2035. The funding is aimed at reducing emissions and supporting adaptation measures such as resilient infrastructure, sustainable agriculture, and disaster response.
Brazil is also promoting the proposed Tropical Forests Forever Facility, which would provide financial incentives for rainforest conservation. The scheme seeks to link international investment to preservation targets in countries with major forest reserves.
Only 64 countries, representing about 30 per cent of global emissions, have so far submitted updated national climate plans. A UN report released in October found that existing pledges would cut emissions by around 10 per cent by 2035. To meet the 1.5°C limit, global emissions would need to fall by roughly 60 per cent from 2019 levels. The US’s withdrawal is expected to affect overall momentum.
Hoekstra told Bloomberg, “It would be very important for the world if they would actually refrain from that. Most experts were hoping for an NDC north of 30 per cent. And then an NDC that is in all likelihood below 10 per cent? I mean, even with all the diplomatic language I would love to wrap around that, it’s hard to see how that is enough.”
The Trump administration has reduced renewable energy investment and dismantled USAID, which previously accounted for nearly a tenth of global climate finance. Washington has also opposed certain international climate measures, including the International Maritime Organisation’s Net Zero Framework.
The International Energy Agency estimates that investment in renewable power will reach $1.5 trillion this year, roughly 50 per cent more than spending on fossil fuels. Renewables now generate more global electricity than coal, with China and several emerging economies leading growth in clean energy capacity.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has confirmed his attendance in Belém. Brazil, meanwhile, is preparing declarations on carbon markets, methane reduction, and forest protection in the run-up to the conference. COP30 is not expected to produce a new global agreement but to reinforce existing commitments through finance and accountability measures.
The outcomes in Belém will indicate whether international cooperation on climate action can continue without direct US participation and how far governments are willing to align environmental policy with global security priorities.
