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By Staff Writer
US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have reached a temporary truce over rare earth exports, in what could ease immediate supply-chain fears but leaves Washington’s long-term national security vulnerabilities largely intact.
Meeting for the first time in six years, the two leaders described their discussions in Seoul as “constructive” and said a framework was in place to resolve “major trade issues”. Central to those talks was Beijing’s agreement to suspend newly tightened export controls on rare earth elements, materials essential to the production of advanced weapons, fighter jets and missile systems, as well as smartphones and electric vehicles.
The decision follows weeks of tension after China’s Ministry of Commerce expanded its export control list earlier this month, citing “national security and state interests”. The new rules would have required licences for the export of several rare earths, refining technologies and magnet-making equipment, with particular scrutiny on defence-related and semiconductor applications.
Short-term relief, long-term exposure
While the White House hailed Beijing’s suspension as a “major breakthrough”, analysts say the move amounts to a tactical pause rather than a strategic shift. The agreement, understood to last around a year, will allow US defence and technology manufacturers to maintain access to key materials while negotiations continue.
“This buys time for the US industrial base, but it doesn’t eliminate the vulnerability,” said a senior defence official briefed on the talks. “China still controls over 80 per cent of global rare earth processing capacity. That leverage hasn’t changed.”
Rare earths, a group of 17 critical elements used in radar systems, precision-guided munitions and electric-vehicle motors, have become a flashpoint in the economic and strategic rivalry between Washington and Beijing. Any disruption to supply could delay weapons production and undermine efforts to expand domestic manufacturing of advanced technologies.
Defence industry warning
The Pentagon has privately warned that renewed restrictions could threaten readiness across several key programmes, including missile guidance and electronic warfare systems. Senior officials are urging the administration to use the current truce to accelerate domestic processing capacity and deepen cooperation with allied producers in Australia and Canada.
China’s export suspension also comes amid broader attempts by both sides to stabilise a relationship that has been marked by tariff battles, technology restrictions and mutual accusations of economic coercion. Alongside the rare earths pause, the US agreed to roll back part of its tariffs on certain Chinese chemical precursors used in fentanyl production, while Beijing pledged to resume purchases of American agricultural goods.
Strategic dependence endures
Despite the apparent goodwill, the structure of the rare earths agreement leaves Beijing significant room to reimpose controls at short notice, particularly if trade or security tensions flare again.
“China has weaponised rare earths before, and it can do so again,” said one expert in critical-minerals security, speaking to National Security News. “Until the US develops independent processing and magnet-making capacity, this remains a national security vulnerability, disguised as a trade success.”
Trump called the talks “amazing” and confirmed he had been invited to visit Beijing in April, a symbolic gesture of thawing relations. But within Washington, the focus has already shifted to whether the administration can convert the temporary reprieve into long-term resilience.
“This is a breathing space, not a solution,” said one congressional aide involved in critical-minerals policy. “If we waste it, the US defence supply chain will still be sitting on a single point of failure, and that point is in China.”
