By Sean Rayment
Islamist-inspired terrorist attacks in the UK could increase in the coming months, intelligence chiefs have warned the government.
Britain’s intelligence services believe the two-year anniversary of the Hamas attack in Israel could lead to a series of attacks similar to the Manchester Synagogue stabbing last week in which an Islamist-inspired terrorist was shot dead.
Human intelligence personnel at MI5 and GCHQ believe it can take between 18 months and two years for individuals to become radicalised, which is often kick-started by a significant event such as the 9/11 attacks, the Iraq War and more recently the Hamas attacks in Israel.
One intelligence source told National Security News: “It usually takes around 18 months for an individual to become radicalised but the process can be shorter.
“What we have seen in the past is that a significant traumatic event will occur which will inspire some individuals and set them on the path to radicalisation. How long that takes often depends on the individual but it’s usually somewhere between 18 months and two years.
“This is of course an inexact science. Some people do become radicalised much more quickly but never take the step into terrorism.”
The source added that the attack carried out by the Syrian-born terrorist Jihad Al-Shamie was two years after the Hamas attack in October 2023.
The source added: “Al-Shamie was clearly Islamist-inspired, radical and anti-Semite given that his target was a synagogue. I think we will undoubtedly see similar attacks in the coming weeks and months and the conflict in Gaza will provide inspiration for those attacks in the same way the Iraq War provided inspiration for a spate of attacks in the UK over the last two decades.”
It has since emerged that a Muslim woman who was in a relationship with Al-Shamie claimed he forced her to watch extremist videos, a disclosure which gives further weight to the theory that he had become radicalised.
Meanwhile, SAS counter-terrorist teams have been placed on high alert amid fears that the Manchester Synagogue stabbing could lead to a series of copycat attacks by radicals across the UK.
Intelligence sources have said that the potential of similar attacks is regarded as high and all special forces counter-terrorist teams have been placed on standby.
The special forces response will be led by two teams from the SAS’s counter-terrorist unit which have been placed on “immediate notice to move”.
One source told National Security News: “MI5 and the police are urgently trying to establish whether this was a one-off incident by a lone wolf attacker or part of a wider terrorist plot.
“The possibility that copycat attacks could take place across the country is a major concern. The SAS will be ready to deal with any further attacks and have been training exactly for this type of scenario in recent months.
“Since the conflict in Gaza exploded the possibility of an attack against the Jewish community in the UK has been on the cards. This is just the first. There will be others.”
A military source said: “The SAS have been preparing to deal with events like the Manchester attack for years. They have developed techniques to take out suicide bombers and stop vehicles being used as weapons. As soon as any intelligence emerges of another attack the SAS teams will deploy directly into that area and take out the terrorists.”
The SAS’s counter-terrorist unit is composed of two teams called Red and Blue team, composed of around 25 troops each.
The unit is located at the SAS’s headquarters in Hereford but can deploy across the country by a special RAF helicopter unit known as Blue Thunder.
But it is understood that one of the two teams has already deployed to another location in the UK so that it can respond to attacks even more quickly.
Both counter-terrorist teams can operate independently or together, depending on the situation at hand.
Each team is composed of a command element, assaulters, medics, handler and a special forces-trained bomb disposal unit known as an Alpha team. The teams are also trained in hostage rescue situations and explosive entry. Each unit also contains up to six snipers equipped with high-powered rifles.
